Imibare yasohowe ku wa Kabiri igaragaza ko umusaruro mbumbe w’u Bushinwa (GDP) wiyongereyeho 5.2% hagati ya Mata (04) na Kamena (06) ugereranyije n’igihe nk’icyo mu mwaka ushize, uvuye kuri 5.4% byari byagezweho mu gihembwe cya mbere. Nubwo iryo zamuka ari rito ugereranyije n’irya mbere, ryarenze gato ibyari byitezwe n’impuguke zari ziteze 5.1%, nk'uko ikinyamakuru Reuters kibivuga.

Zhiwei Zhang, impuguke mu by’ubukungu muri Pinpoint Asset Management, yavuze ko iyo ntera yashobojwe n’uko inganda zabashije kohereza ibicuruzwa mu mahanga kare, mbere y’uko amasezerano y’agateganyo ku misoro hagati y’u Bushinwa na Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika ashyirwa ho.

Nubwo hari icyizere gike, impungenge ni nyinshi ku bijyanye n’igihe gisigaye  ngo umwaka urangire. Abashoramari bategereje kureba niba hari izindi ngamba Leta izafata, mu gihe ubucuruzi bwo kohereza ibicuruzwa hanze y'Ubushinwa bukomeje bugenda bugabanuka, ibiciro ku isoko bikagabanuka (bikagwa), n’abaturage bagakomeza kuba mu bukene.

Ibibazo by’imbere mu gihugu nabyo ni ibindi, cyane cyane ku baturage basanzwe. Imibare y’ukwezi kwa Kamena (06) yerekanye ko inganda zakomeje gutanga umusaruro ku kigero cya 6.8%, ariko irangurura ry’ibicuruzwa mu maduka (retail sales) ryagabanutse rikagera kuri 4.8% rivuye kuri 6.4% mu kwezi kwabanje, ari na rwo rugero rwo hasi rwagezweho guhera mu mpera z’ukwezi kwa Gashyantare (02).

Abaturage nk’umuganga witwa Mallory Jiang wo mu mujyi wa Shenzhen, bavuga ko  we n'umugabo we bagizweho ingaruka n’igabanuka ry’umushahara.

Ati: “Twembi nk’abaganga twagabanyirijwe umushahara, nta n’inzu twatinyuka kugura. Turagenda twihagararaho: dukoresha imodoka rusange, turya ku kazi cyangwa dutekera mu rugo. Igitutu cy'imibereho gikomeje kudukandamiza.”

Leta y’u Bushinwa imaze igihe ishyiraho ingamba zo kongera imbaraga mu bukungu, zirimo kongera amafaranga y’ishoramari mu bikorwa remezo, gutanga inkunga ku bakoresha no kugabanya inyungu za banki. Mu kwezi kwa Gatanu, Banki Nkuru yagabanyije inyungu n’amabwiriza ajyanye no gutanga inguzanyo, kugira ngo ifashe isoko guhangana n’ingaruka z’imisoro yashyizweho na Perezida wa Amerika, Donald Trump.

Ariko bamwe mu basesenguzi bavuga ko ayo mavugurura adashobora guhagarika ibibazo byose igihugu gihanganye nabyo.

Zichun Huang, impuguke mu by’ubukungu muri Capital Economics, yagize ati: “Imibare ya GDP ishobora kuba yerekana isura iruta ukuri. Nubwo habayeho ubufasha bwa Leta, ubwiyongere bushobora kugenda bugabanuka mu mezi ari imbere.”

Ibipimo byakozwe n'impuguke za Reuters bigaragaza ko ubukungu bushobora kugabanuka bukagera kuri 4.5% mu gihembwe cya gatatu, bukagera kuri 4.0% mu gihembwe cya kane. Ku mwaka wa 2025, biteganyijwe ko buzagera kuri 4.6%, munsi ya 5% u Bushinwa bwihaye, ndetse bukazagabanuka bikomeye muri 2026.

Mu bindi bibazo bikomeye, harimo n’ihungabana rikomeje mu rwego rw’imiturire. Ishoramari muri uru rwego ryagabanutse cyane mu mezi atandatu ya mbere, naho ibiciro by’inzu byaguye ku muvuduko uri hejuru ugereranyije n’andi mezi umunani ashize. Leta y’u Bushinwa yatangaje ko igiye kwihutisha gahunda yo kuvugurura imidugudu no gushyiraho uburyo bushya bwo guteza imbere umutekano w’amacumbi.

Ku rundi ruhande, ishoramari mu bikoresho remezo naryo ryagabanutse, rigera kuri 2.8% mu mezi atandatu ya mbere, rivuye kuri 3.7% yariho hagati ya Mutarama (01) na Gicurasi (05). Ibi byose bigaragaza ibibazo biri mu bukungu n’impungenge mu nganda, nk’uko bigaragarira mu kugabanuka kwa 9.2% ku musaruro wa sima yakozwe n'Ubushinwa mu kwezi kwa Kamena (06).

Abasesenguzi bavuga ko u Bushinwa bushobora kudakomeza kugera ku ntego bwihaye, keretse hashyizweho izindi ngamba zikomeye zishingiye ku ngengo y’imari no gushishikariza abaturage kongera kugura ibintu ku isoko.

Dan Wang wo muri Eurasia Group avuga ko “ubwiyongere bushobora guhagarara mu gihembwe gitaha, keretse Leta yongeyeho imbaraga zidasanzwe.”

Nubwo ubukungu bw’u Bushinwa bwarenze intego ya Leta mu gihembwe cya kabiri, ibimenyetso byinshi biragaragaza ko inzira igana imbere ishobora kuzamo imbogamizi nyinshi.

@Reuters